Musical Chairs, Writer Finds Blog, and the new Damien Cox

Musical Chairs
As many people have noted, the Leafs have a bit of a math problem in net. Tellqvist, Aubin, and Raycroft all expect to be with the big club this year but we only have two spots (actually one because JFJ has already said that Raycroft is the starter barring a shitting of the bed).

Despite previous statements to the opposite, JFJ is still looking to make some moves to open up cap space and possibly bring Mats that much coveted 'winger' that everyone thinks that he needs. Although, one should note that despite playing with absolute mooks he put up 20-17-37 in the last 25 games of the year. Quite the captain's innings to borrow a saying from cricket (Mats and all his wonderfulness are another post entirely).

Howard Berger provides HockeyBuzz.com with one of its few readable posts by suggesting that Tellqvist and his miniscule $589K salary could be attractive to a team looking for a solid backup to play around 20 games or that needs some goaltending depth. Off the top of my head, Atlanta could use someone of Tellqvist's calibre considering the goaltending disaster they went through last year (about 12 goalies were used, more or less). This would leave prospects (Pogge, Racine) in the Marlies' net as opposed to deadweight and after the frantic finish to last season's campaign everyone in Leafdom can be comfortable with Aubin as the backup.

Kenny Campbell Reads the Blogosphere!
A scant 8 days after Raking Leafs sang the praises of Kyle Wellwood, our own caucasian reporter, Kenny Campbell, has helped flesh out Ninja's analysis with some quotations from the man of the hour.

Wellwood's passing ability will be anchoring one of two PP units but it would be great if, as suggested, Sundin's shooting ability is not suborned by having his passing as the focus of the other PP unit. Mats has one of the best shots in the NHL and, as the Florida game in the stretch last year proved, he works well as the focal point.

Simmons is the new Cox
Of course I mean that in the most contemptible way possible. As if having to suffer through his pomposity on the Satellite Hot Stove was not bad enough, Simmons is starting to pop up with more frequency on television. However, written diarrhea is still his bread and butter as his article from Sunday can attest:

It's commendable the Leafs have gotten rid of Ed Belfour, Aki Berg, Alex Khavanov, Luke Richardson, Tie Domi, Eric Lindros, Jason Allison and Pat Quinn -- at least two and maybe three who are going to the Hall of Fame. But how much better does Mike Peca, Pavel Kubina, Hal Gill, Andrew Raycroft and Paul Maurice really make them? It's not like a team lacking speed and creativity got any.

Where to start? Lindros wanted too much money, Richardson, Domi, Khavanov, and Allison were too slow to compete at even strength, Quinn had lost the plot, Berg was seduced by 22 hours of darkness (Thank God he loves Finland), and Belfour is 41 years old. If those guys had stayed (but some are Hall of Famers!!!) then Simmons would be bitching about that. Kubina and Gill are MASSIVE improvements over any combination of Richardson, Khavanov, and Berg. Raycroft at least has the potential of recovering his Calder Trophy form with Aubin providing an able safety net while Belfour is more likely to throw his back out screaming an offer of eleventy billion dollars to a cop. And Maurice is the kind of coach that is needed in the new NHL and will give the kids a bigger chance (this is where the speed and creativity comes from Stevie) to show what they can do. Thankfully, Cox has been on vacation so there has only been one anti-Leafs Toronto-based columnist spewing absolute bullshit.

Raycroft, Rumours, and Anti-Leafs Ranting

Raycroft

As anticipated, on Draft Day the Leafs moved to solidify their # 1 position by trading Finnish prospect Tuukka Rask for former Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft. The key to the deal is obviously 'former Calder Trophy winner'. Yes, Rask was the top goalie at the World Juniors but for every Roberto Luongo, Jose Theodore, and Kari Lehtonen that has won that award there is a Yevgeny Tarasoc, Pauli Jacks, Jamie Storr, and Jimmy Waite. Rask could fall anywhere between the two levels.

While adding Raycroft as the # 1 is a gamble (of course, I was in favour of gambling with Aubin/Telly) it is far less so than mortgaging the team's future for a Giguere or Nabokov to hold down the fort until Rask (hopefully) develops into a starter. He has already proven that he can be a # 1 (2003-2004: 29-18-9, 2.05GAA, .926SV%). Like many NHLers that did not play during the lockout, Raycroft struggled mightily (2005-2006: 8-19-0, 3.71GAA, .879SV%).

Raycroft will find his pre-lockout stride. The renewed confidence of not just a starting job but a new long-term deal in addition to a full pre-season and training camp will stand Raycroft in good stead. If I had to wager, I would say that Aubin will be the backup with Tellqvist most likely being moved (if Pogge is with the Marlies then it'll be a Pogge-Racine duo) or Telly backing up Pogge if Racine continues with the Memphis Riverkings in the CHL.

Rumours

Ken Campbell of the Toronto Star is reporting that the Leafs are trying to shore up one of their weak spots by landing one of the top defencemen in the league in Chris Pronger. Unfortunately, we can't do like we did with Cujo (maybe that explains the next item) and outbid the Oilers. they are demanding Kaberle and Steen (not a good move as I'll show later) which is too much for a team that is supposed to be BUILDING A TEAM after years of mortgaging the future. Maybe that's why JFJ has never mentioned any sort of plan. He's just continuing the old plan, bad contracts, old players, just enough results to prevent anarchy.

Well, after seeing the Hartford Whalers win the cup in their SECOND Finals trip in four years Leafs fans will not be too happy to see more young players leaving (ie. Alyn McCauley and Brad Boyes for Owen Nolan) to have their best years elsewhere while the Leafs get older players on the decline. Granted, Pronger is not on a steep decline but he has logged about 30 minutes per game for 12 seasons. He's going to start breaking down (since he's always been injury prone this will only get worse) and it will be in Toronto if JFJ has his way.

Anti-Leafs Ranting

Geez, the reaction to Darren Dreger of Sportsnet writing that he thought that the Leafs were 'the most intriguing option' for the Oilers garnered A LOT of reaction. Most postings average 15-30 replies. This one had 117 mostly blinkered, frothing at the mouth, anti-Leafs comments. The most ridiculous comments alternately stated that Alexander Steen was a terrible prospect or that Tomas Kaberle was over-rated and over-paid.

In his rookie campaign Steen put up 18-27-45 in 75 games to rank 8th in rookie scoring. He placed ahead of such highly praised rookies as Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry. Sure he slowed down in the latter stages of the season but he had never played more than 40 games in a season.

As for Tomas Kaberle, he was fifth in defencemen scoring, 9-58-67 in 82 games ahead of, among others, Chris Pronger. Both had similar +/- of -1 and 2 respectively. While Tomas, at age 28, just signed a contract that will pay him $4.25M/yr Pronger is set to receive an average of $6.25M/yr over the next 4 years that will take him from 32 to 36 years. And as much as Pronger plays Kaberle actually averaged 28:10 per game compared to 27:59. I would say that Kaberle is the better option for the Leafs rather than trading youth to get a player who has played most of his best years. I would rather see JFJ rescind the deal he's offered McCabe and use that money to get a better deal on a replacement like Aaron Ward or Jay McKee.

Leafs Need New # 1?

Ken Campbell wrote today that the Leafs have decided against an Aubin/Telly platoon. Of course news like this resulted in some heated e-mails and a lot of discussion. The long and the short of it is that this move is not a good idea.

The contracts that both Giguere and Nabokov would bring are one of the main reasons. Giguere is only making $3.99M/yr but he will also be a UFA after the 2006-2007. So the Leafs could end up in a similar position as when they picked up Nolan, giving up young talent for a guy that will only be here for a short period. As for Nabokov, next year he stands to make $5.375M. He's also under contract for three more years after next for a total commitment on Toronto's behalf of $21.5M over four years for San Jose's backup.

The main issue is the Leafs always trading away anything resembling young talent to try to win RIGHT NOW. I remember reading a Bill Simmons' article that said that most fans would rather their team win one championship followed by 5 years of missing the playoffs instead of 6 years of being good but not good enough. Sound familiar? apparently in Toronto it's 1 championship followed by 40 years of ineptness sprinkled with a bunch of close but no cigar seasons.

My friend put it in the best in his e-mail:

The Leafs are dumb to go after Giguere. He's a UFA in 2007. Why do they insist on building a team ranked 6th-12th every season? They need to ink some more talented players. The Leafs have enough youth to fill out the roster so only legitimate upgrades should be made. I'm talking impact players not role players. If we roll the dice with Telly and Aubin the worst thing that happens is that they fizzle in a year in which our expectations are focused on developing our young players rather than mortaging the future. Nabokov has a rich contract and I'm not convinced he can be The Man. I think he would struggle under the TO media scrutiny. Also, If we give up quality youth to San Jose again Boston fans will make fun of us. At least they only got ripped off once.

So there you have it: Go with youth, build something, make quality upgrades. Doesn't JFJ realize that this is the blueplan for success post-lockout? probably not.

In other news: this draft weekend has the potential to be huge. The Leafs are apparently trying to move up to the top 5 picks and Luongo, Bertuzzi, and Pronger are rumoured to be on the move.

Update 1: tsn.ca has reported that the Canucks and Panthers have completed a trade that will send Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen, and Alex Auld to Florida with Roberto Luongo and Lukas Krajicek heading out to Canada's West Coast.

Initial thoughts: Thank God Mike Keenan is in the NHL. He single handedly makes the draft weekend interesting. Who else would trade a top 5 goalie for a career backup who did well enough to fill in for Cloutier and the only surviving neanderthal? At least Bryan Allen is a career +3 defenceman. If only Mike Milbury was around to keep the crazy train going.

The World Cup will keep me from posting predictions on what the Leafs might do with their picks but check out Raking Leafs to get an idea of what moves might occur. I'll post my thoughts on the draft, the trades, the hirings, and all sundry moves on Monday.