John Ferguson Sr 1938-2007

Leafs GM John Ferguson Jr. lost his father this weekend and my thoughts and prayers go out to him. Reality Check has a wonderful look at Senior's life.

Monday Morning Odds and Ends

Mark Zwolinski adds to the pressure on JFJ to make some tough decisions. Darcy Tucker is attracting a lot of interest from his home province and the Western Conference. The talk from his agent had been that he was going to be looking for something in the $4M-$5M range when contract negotiations started but the starting point has been pegged at a 5 year deal for $17.5M or $3.5M/year. The deal is a little long considering Tucker's style of play and that he will be 36 at the end of the contract but the price is a little more reasonable.

Mats Sundin has also attracted interest from the Anaheim Ducks. The article notes that the Leafs will have to take the $6.3M cap hit because they will have to pick up the option to keep the Captain. He has a no trade clause but I can imagine him being tempted into a run for a Cup that he deserves. His addition to Anaheim would definitely make them a strong favourite to win the Cup and they have a lot of young players that could make an immediate impact for the Leafs in Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf among others.

Ken Dryden opines on his jersey retirement on the day that his number 29 will be honoured by the Montreal Canadiens. There were a few good pieces written about the subject that were split on whether to honour or retire. Good arguments were made for both sides with Bitter Leaf providing some good criteria to consider when retiring a jersey, Wardo at Leaf Club pointing out how players enjoy the history of their jerseys, and Reality Check at Eyes on the Prize focused on the joy that having their jersey retired would bring to a player. Well Dryden sees both sides of the argument and points out that he enjoyed seeing young players wearing his number:

It used to be ... that when a special rookie arrived in a team's training camp, that player would be given No. 9 or 7 or 2, whatever the number that was special to that team. One of the great and surprising thrills for me was seeing goalies wearing No. 29 after me. For a few, it may have been because I wore that number, but over time it became a goalie number.

Ever the politician.

Leafs 4 v. Habs 1: Eight Is Enough

Game Recap

The Leafs kicked off their post-All Star schedule with an almost perfectly played game. Pavel Kubina had a hell of a game with two goals and an assist and the Leafs' special teams outdueled the Canadiens top ranked PP and PK. The Habs have gone 6-10 in their last 16 and have slowly been returning to the pack where they belong. Their heady position was built on excellent special teams and any Leaf fan can relate to how shaky that sort of foundation can be. The Habs are a deely flawed team that has been dominated in all five games by the Leafs and have picked up two wins on the basis of incredible goaltending and their special teams. This is the second game in Toronto between the two in which neither showed up and they were easily handled by a team that Sheldon Souray labelled as 'not as good as us' in post-game comments.

Easy Sheldon, I think you might be letting your place as Montreal's Bryan McCabe go to your head. I have a newsflash for you: Your team is not as good as the Leafs and the final standings will reflect that fact. I am sure that the Habs are glad that they will only have to face the Leafs three more times during the run-in to the playoffs. Not even with the Leafs laundry list of injuries could the Habs compete with the boys in blue. It was nice to see Souray, who will no doubt wrangle a ridiculous contract on the back of his wicked slap shot despite his complete inability to play defence (see last year's top 10 goals for 3 appearances by Monsieur 44 and he was not scoring them).

Andrew Raycroft had another game in which he made the big saves when needed (that's 3 of 4 since the Canucks debacle) and the team played the simple game. They rarely got caught turning the puck over in their own end, they chipped it out, and they dumped it in and worked to their strength. They dominated the Habs defence down low and caused numerous turnovers. On the powerplay, the second unit of Stajan, O'Neill, Steen, Kubina, and Carlo showed that they could be a viable threat with two goals and excellent puck movement.

The 4-1 defeat of the Canadiens was a great send-off before embarking on a five game road trip. There are 13 games left before the February 27th trade deadline. They include only four home games which in itself may be a blessing. The Leafs sport a 12-9-3 record away from the ACC and Andrew Raycroft is clearly more comfortable away from the boo-birds as his 11-5-1 attests.

Those 13 games include eight games against teams that are either in the playoffs but within striking distance or in the chasing pack on the ouside looking in. The first five will give JFJ a good indication of what sorts of deals he will be able to make. Bitter Leaf makes a good case for not giving up on the season while still making trades that will benefit the future of the team. Dave Shoalts outlines how Richard Peddie, Larry Tanenbaum and the rest of the MLSE board have put JFJ in a ridiculous position. He can either look out for his own best interests, in this case make short-term trades in order to make the playoffs and retain his job, or do the right thing for the club, cash in assets and build for the future, and risk being fired if the Leafs miss the playoffs.

JFJ has already walked down the path of self-preservation during the off-season and it left the Leafs with a Bryan McCabe contract that gives the team an anchor around its neck more than an anchor on defence and a Pavel Kubina contract that until recently was looking every bit as bad. My belief is that when JFJ examined the team last year he saw a team that missed the playoffs because of injuries to the forwards and shaky goaltending. He addressed the goaltending issue well (whether he made the right decision is up in the air considering most fans would have lived with an Aubin-Telly platoon and that Manny Legace was available cheaply since teams were inexplicably uninterested in him) but he made a calculated gamble based on the advice of the Leafs scouts and their depth at the goaltending position.

He addressed the forward issue by letting Allison and Lindros walk and allowing the younger forwards to take on a bigger role for the club. Despite the doomsday predictions about the lack of scoring the Leafs sit in the top quarter of the league in goals for. The problem lies in JFJ's decisions about the back-end. Kaberle's deal was a steal and he should receive credit. However, in examining the team's chances of success I think that JFJ looked at the powerplay and saw that he had to maintain it in order to have the best chance to save his job. That reasoning is how Bryan McCabe and Pavel Kubina ended up getting such large contracts. Yes, both would have probably received more on the open market (Kubina was offered more for longer by the Blues but chose Toronto) but keep in mind that Zdeno Chara, the kind of defenceman that chews up minutes and can shut down the opposition's top line, was available. Him and Jay McKee could have been available for the same money but JFJ must have felt that keeping the McCabe and Kaberle partnership was necessary for the powerplay to keep humming along which in turn gave the team, and by extension himself, the best chance to succeed. He didn't want to risk having the powerplay fall off because the team could not adapt to a different strategy on the powerplay.

So once again the Leafs and their fans enter a decisive period with a GM that has his own interests ahead of the team's long-term succes. He not only has to decide if Mats and Darcy remain Leafs but at what price. Will any of the Cup contenders make offers worthy of those two? When will he start/finish negotiations with the pair? If the Leafs are not able to decline Mats' option and negotiate a better deal (thereby reducing the $6.3M cap hit for next season) then will JFJ move him to a team like Anaheim and thereby free up a large chunk of cap space for the next Leafs star? If Darcy insists on more money or a longer term than the Leafs are willing to spend will he move him before he can leave for nothing? or will he cave and sign him to a McCabe-like deal? I love both players and they would be nigh on irreplaceable but if they were not then these would be easy questions to answer. As it stands, they run through my mind every day.

My own view is that if JFJ takes the easy route and tries to save his job again and succeeds (gets a playoff spot) it will most likely be a Pyrrhic victory because he will probably have traded some portion of the Leafs future to ensure short-tem gains. Leaf fans already frequently tear their clothes, refuse to cut their hair, and moan 'Pat Quinn/JFJ, give me back our future!' without tossing some more picks/prospects/youngsters to the mix. JFJ's next month needs to be focused on ascertaining if Mats and Darcy can be brought back at a good price or, failing that, what the best mix of players/prospects/and picks is that he can get for them. A couple of bad contracts or losing Darcy for nothing would be disastrous for the Leafs.

However, there is nothing that I can do but hope that the Leafs, injuries and all, have learned to succeed over the first 50 games and can use those lessons to reach the playoffs. Before the season I believed that they would make it and the signs have been distinctly positive of late. As for the rest, all I can do is hope for divine inspiration to strike JFJ.

Sundry Monday (Tuesday in Indonesia)

The funny thing about writing a personal blog is that you are really responsible to no one. Last week I made some vague promises that I would write about the following:

• What defencemen will stick with the big club?
• What will the lines look like?
• Where will the goals come from?
• Is JFJ trying to undermine Maurice already?

But what happened when Queen's Homecoming derailed my plans? From what I know, only a couple of friends noticed (one also noticed that initially the post said 'Tomorrow' and then I edited it). Aside from that I guess some poor ex-pat in Indonesia might not have the time to read all of the Leafs' stories in the Sun, Star, Globe, and Post. For him, here is a wrap up of those questions and the training camp news before tonight's pre-season opener against Buffalo. I have LeafsTV so I'll have a game report of some sort (not sure how I want to write them up) although Prison Break is on so I might have to wait for the hour-long edited version of the game.

Defence Battle

After leaving the first practice with suspected post-concussion symptoms Carlo Colaiacovo (that might be the first time I write that correctly without having to check) will be handled gently by the Leafs. Knowing the trials and tribulations that the Lindros Brothers had with head injuries it is good to see the team taking the measured approach.

This setback does open up the door for the other defencemen vying for the last two or three spots on the blueline. The most interesting line from that article covered the contract status of the Marlies Sextet:

But "status" could have an impact. Two of the players, Kronwall and White, do not have to clear waivers to return to the minors. The others do. That makes it a lot easier to move those two back and forth — perhaps using one of then as a seventh defenceman — than players who are eligible for waivers and could be claimed by another team.

The general consensus has been that Carlo would partner Kubina with Gill getting a partner skilled with the puck, someone like White (I heard that seeing the 6'7" Gill partner the 5'10" white looked pretty funny). However, if this contract situation plays a part in the decision - and it should only become a factor if two players are in a dead heat - then this gives Jay Harrison and Brendan Bell a bit of an edge. At the end of the day, the benefit that the Leafs will have in making this decision is that Paul Maurice will have had an entire season with the Marlies and a training camp to assess these six.

The Depths of Madness?

I had my anticipated/desired lines for this year's team thought out since about June. It was a long process of exchanging e-mails with some equally busy friends. We made a few revisions to slot in new signings but are holding off on releasing the full lines until we see some pre-season games. Other people have not shown that same foresight and have released depth charts. tsn.ca has a season preview (surprise: kids need to score more and Raycroft has to be good) along with their chart. The Star counters with some interesting lines. They both agree that Carlo and Kronwall will be holding down the open spots. Here is the fun part of making lines, apparently you can slot in players anywhere without regard for their actual position. Wellwood's a centre? TSN does not care. Wade Belak is a perennial Leafs' management favourite? TSN does not even include him. Actually, I agree with that. Toss in a new coach and you can see that devising possible lines is a exercise akin to throwing darts in the dark.

Got Goals?

James Mirtle asked the question du jour the other day: Where will the goals come from? Well, Raking Leafs thinks that one source will be an improved Kyle Wellwood. Tucker will be trying to show his love for Toronto by at least matching his total of 28 goals. Realistically, the fact that the team has lost big names like Roberts, Nieuwendyk, Lindros, and Allison means that guys that have floated under the radar will have to step up and either match their potential or move on.

Actually, Wellwood, Stajan, Steen, and Ponikarovsky are not on the bubble but they will be expected to improve on their stats from last year. Antropov, however, is probably serving out his last contract with the Leafs if he does not continue on his strong end of season stint with Mats and Poni. To be fair, the Leafs are only looking to replace about 40 goals. A combination of faster forwards teamed with better puck moving defenders should be enough to plug the gap. That and McCabe getting about 7 PPs worth of one-timers a game.

JFJ Mind Games

Howard Berger saw the Machiavellian undertones of Fergie mentioning that both Aubin and Tellqvist might be with the Leafs in some sort of three headed goaltending system. Of course, Maurice would probably hate this because everyone knows that there are only two nets on the ice. Only in adult movies does three go into two and it is just as awkward as trying to split up the practice time for the tenders.

Chances are that JFJ is wary of the chance of losing Telly on waivers for nothing after investing so much time in developing him from a young, scared Swedish goalie that played so deep it looked that he was hiding into a serviceable NHL back-up. JFJ knows that his future lies with Maurice's ability to mould the club into a playoff team so it is in his best interests to leave these decisions to Paul.

Leafs v. Buffaslugs

LeafsTV is having some technical problems but Maurice had a good quotation about the fishbowl that is the Centre of the Universe:

"I know that no matter what happens tonight there will be a three-hour conversation on the radio discussing what tonight's game means to our Stanley Cup aspirations."

GAME TIME! God I missed hockey.

Dead Man Walking

Hockey is just around the corner! After a post-free agency lull stories have begun to pop up, pre-season rankings are being published, training camp is just around the corner, and Damien Cox is talking crap about the Leafs.

His latest attack against long-time nemesis Pat Quinn seeks to absolve JFJ of all wrongdoing because big, bad Patty was too powerful:

Then came last year, by which time it had become clear that Ferguson wasn't going to be able to demand just about anything of head coach Pat Quinn and his staff, let alone a team dominated by veteran players deeply set in their ways. Quinn and his sidekick Rick Ley, for better or worse, had their systems and routines worked out, and while Ferguson's relationship with Quinn wasn't acrimonious, it always had its roots in Quinn's preference for another candidate when Ferguson was hired and the natural unwillingness of an established hockey man to take direction from a relatively unseasoned superior.

What a crock of crap. I guess since JFJ was the GM he was not allowed to buy out some of the terrible contracts that existed. And I suppose Quinn made JFJ sign Berg (AGAIN!), Allison, Khavanov, and Domi (actually, that was Tanenbaum's doing). Despite War's desire to lay the blame at everyone's favourite Irish Catholic coach last year's debacle had more to do with JFJ misreading the post-lockout NHL.

JFJ has done some (potentially) good work this summer to try to make up for past mistakes which is something that past regimes have been loathe to do. Although, let's face it, he pretty much had to make drastic changes because as Cox notes:

Ferguson has no contract beyond this year, and while he won't say it, he has to understand that he'll have no job either if this hockey club isn't a participant in the Stanley Cup playdowns next spring. By December, newcomers to the city may be under the impression that Lame and Duck are the man's first and middle names, so often will that description precede an examination of his decisions.

JFJ has started the long walk to the executioner's chair and the success, or lack thereof, of his key moves (Peca, Raycroft, Kubina, Gill, Maurice) will decide whether he gets strapped in and lit up or if Larry and Richard give him a last second reprieve. Of course, with that brilliant braintrust, we will probably get a new GM this summer and then have a lame duck coach. Round and round we go. When it will make sense? Nobody knows.

Money Matters

Ingmar Bergman Shoots...And Scores has a good analysis of the overall salary commitments of all 30 teams including divisional averages and players still unsigned.

Some interesting things to note related to the Leafs:

• All five teams in the Northeast will spend over $40M this year giving the division the highest average spending in the league.
  

• The sens currently are only $29K behind the Leafs so they can stop crying poor and be glad that all of their whining about the 'Old' NHL paid off. The irony of course is that the salary cap made them lose a young player (Havlat) that they developed just as they would have under the old system. As Oscar Wilde said, "There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it."
  

• Last year's surprise package, Buffalo, not only is developing some of the world's worst jerseys (and most heated backlashes) but they are also losing some vital pieces of their team. Jay McKee split for St. Louis, J.P. Dumont is now a free-agent after the team rejected his $2.9M arbitration award, and their cap figure stands at just over $41M with Ryan Miller, Dmitri Kalinin, Adam Mair, and Jeff Jillson all unsigned. Good news for the Leafs.
  

• Bad news for the Leafs: Harry Sinden is calling it quits. This will invariably improve the team as this Beantown fixture will not be around to pennypinch his stars (while inexplicably opening the purse strings for guys like Martin Lapointe) and hamstring the Bruins. At least the improvement will not come this year.
  

• Somehow Stajan is still unsigned. That will eat up most of the cap space that we have left. JFJ needs to get this done.

We are now less than a month away from opening night with the sens and I could not be more excited. Thank God the Premiership is starting up and that can keep me occupied until October fourth.

Musical Chairs, Writer Finds Blog, and the new Damien Cox

Musical Chairs
As many people have noted, the Leafs have a bit of a math problem in net. Tellqvist, Aubin, and Raycroft all expect to be with the big club this year but we only have two spots (actually one because JFJ has already said that Raycroft is the starter barring a shitting of the bed).

Despite previous statements to the opposite, JFJ is still looking to make some moves to open up cap space and possibly bring Mats that much coveted 'winger' that everyone thinks that he needs. Although, one should note that despite playing with absolute mooks he put up 20-17-37 in the last 25 games of the year. Quite the captain's innings to borrow a saying from cricket (Mats and all his wonderfulness are another post entirely).

Howard Berger provides HockeyBuzz.com with one of its few readable posts by suggesting that Tellqvist and his miniscule $589K salary could be attractive to a team looking for a solid backup to play around 20 games or that needs some goaltending depth. Off the top of my head, Atlanta could use someone of Tellqvist's calibre considering the goaltending disaster they went through last year (about 12 goalies were used, more or less). This would leave prospects (Pogge, Racine) in the Marlies' net as opposed to deadweight and after the frantic finish to last season's campaign everyone in Leafdom can be comfortable with Aubin as the backup.

Kenny Campbell Reads the Blogosphere!
A scant 8 days after Raking Leafs sang the praises of Kyle Wellwood, our own caucasian reporter, Kenny Campbell, has helped flesh out Ninja's analysis with some quotations from the man of the hour.

Wellwood's passing ability will be anchoring one of two PP units but it would be great if, as suggested, Sundin's shooting ability is not suborned by having his passing as the focus of the other PP unit. Mats has one of the best shots in the NHL and, as the Florida game in the stretch last year proved, he works well as the focal point.

Simmons is the new Cox
Of course I mean that in the most contemptible way possible. As if having to suffer through his pomposity on the Satellite Hot Stove was not bad enough, Simmons is starting to pop up with more frequency on television. However, written diarrhea is still his bread and butter as his article from Sunday can attest:

It's commendable the Leafs have gotten rid of Ed Belfour, Aki Berg, Alex Khavanov, Luke Richardson, Tie Domi, Eric Lindros, Jason Allison and Pat Quinn -- at least two and maybe three who are going to the Hall of Fame. But how much better does Mike Peca, Pavel Kubina, Hal Gill, Andrew Raycroft and Paul Maurice really make them? It's not like a team lacking speed and creativity got any.

Where to start? Lindros wanted too much money, Richardson, Domi, Khavanov, and Allison were too slow to compete at even strength, Quinn had lost the plot, Berg was seduced by 22 hours of darkness (Thank God he loves Finland), and Belfour is 41 years old. If those guys had stayed (but some are Hall of Famers!!!) then Simmons would be bitching about that. Kubina and Gill are MASSIVE improvements over any combination of Richardson, Khavanov, and Berg. Raycroft at least has the potential of recovering his Calder Trophy form with Aubin providing an able safety net while Belfour is more likely to throw his back out screaming an offer of eleventy billion dollars to a cop. And Maurice is the kind of coach that is needed in the new NHL and will give the kids a bigger chance (this is where the speed and creativity comes from Stevie) to show what they can do. Thankfully, Cox has been on vacation so there has only been one anti-Leafs Toronto-based columnist spewing absolute bullshit.

Encino Man Returns

No, not the wonderfully witty movie starring Canadian Brendan Fraser and Samwise Gamgee but Wade Belak. Further proof that JFJ might actually have an evil twin that is ruining his reputation is found in the news that Wade Belak had his contract extended. AGAIN. We all thought that he was done after the lockout. Then he got a two-year deal. Now that we could see the light at the end of the tunnel he is re-signed until 2007-2008. Why? do we need to pay a guy to sit in the press box 82 times a year? Hell, I'll do it for the league minimum and save the Leafs over $200K.

Unicorn Sighting

In one of many moments of frustration with JFJ last season I remember likening his 'plan' to a unicorn: a lot of people talk about it like it existed but no one had any proof.

Well, today JFJ articulated it. Finally. It is nice to see that after three years as GM JFJ was finally able to see the Leafs weaknesses and address them. Beyond just the subtraction of players and the addition of this year's incoming free agent class JFJ has provided Maurice with a glut of players which can be used (Newbury, Bell, Carlo, Pohl, Westrum, Bates) to step in for struggling players. One of my greatest gripes with Quinn was that he NEVER sat players that were struggling (Reichel, Renberg, Berg). Of course that was partly because of his loyalty to veterans and partly due to his lack of trusted replacements (although the Leafs have a recent history of doing very well with AHL call-ups Quinn was still very reticent to employ them). Maurice will not bring either of those two handicaps to the team. He is also looking forward to building a team more suited to the quicker pace of the league:

"We want to play a very aggressive puck-pursuit game when we don't have it," Maurice said, "which means you have to have people who want to work and you have to be in good shape to play that way. We want to make sure when we're attacking that we can do some things off the rush that we don't have to dump the puck because we're moving so slowly. We want our forwards to make some plays at the offensive blue line, but they have to do it with speed or you'll get awful turnovers."

Maurice also mentioned that he had been in close and frequent contact with his former charge Jeff O'Neill. I have heard rumours of a bit of a rift between the two of them from their Carolina
days but Maurice's comments do not seem to indicate any problems:

"I have high expectations from how hard he is working and I've made him aware of what those expectations will be," Maurice said. "I've got a lot of faith in his talents and his abilities. I also know that he needs to get to a certain quickness level to be able to use them."

This makes me think that maybe the solution to the Sundin Question might be O'Neill. He struggled last year, like so many veterans, after the year-long layoff and carried the further burden of the tragic death of his brother before the beginning of the season. After a summer of healing (he had shoulder surgery) both physically and mentally he could be poised to return to the form that saw him score 102 goals in 3 seasons from 2000-2003. Training camp opens September 11. I cannot wait.

We Did It!

Peca a Leaf!
That's right, JFJ has succumbed to the combined forces of common sense and fan pressure. According to Kenny Campbell, the Leafs will today announce a deal at 11am to sign hometown boy Mike Peca for one year at $2.5M. The best part of hearing this last night on Sportsnet was that infamous Leafs hater Sean McCormick (Update: Maybe we are having an effect there too. This makes two straight non-antagonistic posts in a row from Seanny.) had to announce the departure of another key piece of the Oilers Stanley Cup run and to Toronto no less. The best part of reading the news was this:

The Peca signing also ends the possibility that Jason Allison will return to the Leafs.

I guess JFJ reads these blogs.

These signings put the Leafs up to a payroll of $42.8M (salary cap of $44M) which leaves very little wiggle room for making any deadline deals if we have any injuries (knock on wood). Although, that $1.2M translates into a much higher salary since the acquired player would have already been paid all his salary save for his last two or three paycheques.

JFJ was doing his best impression of a student cramming by doing most of his summer's work in one day. Here are the rest of the signings that he completed yesterday:

Kyle Wellwood
Finishing 9th in the NHL in rookie scoring (11-34-45 in 81 games) and second on the team behind only Alex Steen has earned Kyle a two-year deal worth $1.75M. That translates into a $875K cap hit per season.

The good news is that the deal is one-way so Wellwood looks to be a feature on the team for at least the next two seasons. He will also have a larger role on the second powerplay unit where he will get to exhibit his passing skills.

Jay Harrison
After a good spell of eight games in which he was +5 Jay is poised to get a shot in the third defensive pairing. I spoke to his brother over the Christmas holidays and at that point it seemed like Jay was tired of Quinn and ready to move on to get a shot. Hopefully this season will see him claim a permanent spot on the blueline.

Brendan Bell
He got the same two-way, league minimum deal that Harrison did. He only got one game in last year during the Great Marlie Defencemen Tryout so I am guessing that this will give him one more year on the Marlies to keep showing the kind of potential that saw him collect 6-37-43 in 70 games last year. He is a fellow '83 so he is still has some time to put in on the Marlies (since D are such notoriously slow developers)

Carlo Colaiacovo
This bit is interesting because Carlo only signed a one-year, TWO-way deal. Previously, he was almost traded as part of the Raycroft-Rask deal for Nick Boynton. And most importantly, he does not feature in my forthcoming potential lines. Three strikes against Carlo means that JFJ will probably continue to shop him around in an attempt to get something for him.

Kris Newbury
File this under "Who?". Apparently, he is "gritty" and a "winger" so maybe this is JFJ's solution to the Sundin Question. Either way, it is a two-way deal so he will have to earn that top line spot.

Matt Stajan
Not signed yet but,

"We've discussed something longer than a year," Ferguson said. "Things are ongoing with Matt and we'll see where it ends up."

I think the 'new' NHL has really suited Matt and look forward to seeing him improve on his 15-12-27 in 80 games (+5!). I am glad to see that JFJ is tying our young centremen to something more than one year qualifying offers. Stajan will be anchoring the fourth line but Maurice will have a lot of high energy wingers to choose from in fleshing out the unit.

JFJ's Plan
Holy crap, this looks like it might indicate a plan:

"We're looking to be a harder team to play against," Ferguson said. "We've added and we're continuing to add to that part of the game."

Generic but at least it is something.

Ghosts of Seasons Past

First off, thanks to Raking Leafs for dropping PPP's name. If you are coming from that link hopefully you will enjoy what I have got to say. If you came here first, then I recommend that you stop by Ninja's site. I also recommend stopping by Leaf Club. He is a fellow rookie and deserves a peek.

Lindros Gone To Texas, Anson in Hollywood
The aforementioned Leaf Club implored JFJ to sign The Big E but the wish has fallen on deaf ears. The Dallas Stars have announced that Eric has signed a one-year deal worth $1.55M plus incentives.

Meanwhile, interest in Anson Carter seems to have waned (I am HOPING that it is because his salary demands will preclude signing Peca).

So in a week, the Leafs have been linked with two potential wingers for Sundin only to see other teams step up and take charge. Eric even went on TSN to say that he wanted to be a Leaf but JFJ stood firm on his contract offer which was reportedly only $500K less than what Lindros wanted (Does that sound like a certain 70s and 80s owner of the Leafs?).

Of course, Eric, who has always maintained that he wanted to be a Leaf (during the negotiations with Bobby Clarke, when he signed last year, during this off-season) could have shown some goodwill to a team that took a chance on him last year only to see his contributions end after 33 games. He had been assured of a bigger role on the Leafs this year and could have parlayed a solid, complete season into a longer deal (he has already made a tonne of money). Still, he left for more money. Disappointing to say the least. At least we do not have to face him coming back to TO to bury the Leafs. Thank God for small favours.

JFJ - What Happened?
What had begun as such a successful summer filled with aggressive, quickly made decisions (Buyouts, Kubina, Gill, Raycroft) has now degenerated into the same dithering off-season that cost the Leafs a playoff spot after the lockout. Peca's been patient with the Leafs so far but I do not see how, especially considering that Carter and Lindros are out of the mix, JFJ can wait any longer to tie Peca up. This is not like signing an injury-prone former Hart Trophy winner or the Sedin twins meal ticket. Peca has A LOT to offer teams apart from points and faceoffs (I extolled his virtues earlier) and there is a lot of interest in him but he has remained patient. Howard Berger of HockeyBuzz.com agrees that JFJ needs to recapture his earlier form (circa July 1) and get the deal done (he says some other things but nothing that I want to hear). You are on notice Johnny.

JFJ Regresses?

Allison!?!?!
The scary thing in that Kenny Campbell article is not that Lindros is likely going to make more than he should it is that JFJ might be looking to undo all the goodwill (small as it may be) that he had built up through his summer moves by re-signing Jason Allison.

Sure, the glacier-paced penalty shots could maybe deceive you (eventually they have to go in right?) and maybe JFJ is afraid that the Leafs won't be able to replace the 60 points that he picked up last year. But after watching the playoffs (surely JFJ did this) and seeing that the emphasis is on speed why would we sign the SLOWEST player in the league! A couple of years ago Shanahan skated off the ice on a broken ankle quicker than I have ever seen Allison move. And do not even get me started on that damned 'Who Me?' face he makes after every penalty called against him! (Interesting note: during last season they were replaying some classic World Junior games and in the lockout 1995 tourney he was on the team and made THE EXACT SAME FACE!) I could punch that stupid face every time I see it on tv. AND HE WAS -18!! Even Antro found a way to be + 13.

Here is the best line from that article:

In the 16 games that Allison was out of the lineup, Sundin scored 14 goals and 29 points, was plus-9 and averaged 3.75 shots per game. In the 54 games he and Allison played together, Sundin scored 17 goals and 49 points, was minus-2 and averaged 2.96 shots per game.

How can you sign a guy with all of those flaws, who shackles your best player, and will (with the signing of Mike Peca and maybe even without) shunt one of your young centres (stajan and wellwood) out to the wing? JFJ what the fuck are you thinking?

Update (July 15, 2006)
It looks like this will turn out to just be a little hiccup and all is well,

Interest in Allison, meanwhile, appears to be waning, largely because other hockey people in the organization are beginning to have some success in talking Ferguson out of signing him.

Good thing I lit all of those candles at church. Thank God.

Rumours

HockeyBuzz Buzzing?
HockeyBuzz.com is reporting a rumour that local boy Anson Carter will be signing a two year deal with the Leafs. Last year he flourished with 33-22-55 (except a -1) playing with the Sedins so playing with a real Swedish player will hopefully increase his production. This would probably end any chance of Peca signing unless JFJ starts moving some players to clear cap space. More to come...
Update (July 14, 2006)
Eklund over at HockeyBuzz.com is now reporting that the Canucks have decided that trying to keep a winger that can actually play with the aliens is a good idea while the Red Wings are trying to replace Shanny on the wing. This could lead to a bidding war which does not suit the Leafs at this point especially considering that they are close to a deal with Peca. Unfortunately, back-loading deals does not work since the salary cap figure is the average salary.

It will be interesting to see who the Leafs end up signing considering that Kenny Campbell wrote today that Lindros is close to a deal in the $1M neighbourhood (as opposed to the $750K one in which he was previously residing) but Eklund has his going out west to one of Edmonton, LA, Calgary, or Phoenix.

In an ideal scenario, Lindros would sign and play all year like he did while Mats was out and Peca would use his playoff form from last year as his regular season form. Also, Carter would sign for $450K just to play in Toronto. More likely, I get the feeling that Carter will get paid by Vancouver (he is looking for $8-9M/3yrs) Lindros will take a pay cut and Peca will get sorted out. Hopefully. Go JFJ.

Big Signing!

Erik Westrum Signs
No, it is not the Mike Peca signing that we have been waiting on with bated breath. The Leafs signed Erik Westrum to a two year, two-way deal and of course,

In keeping with club policy, financial terms of the contract were not disclosed.

Sometimes, seeing that is scary because it makes me think that the Leafs have made some egregious mistake (couldn't they have left the terms of McCabe's deal undisclosed? that would have saved me a lot of grief). I guess Westrum is one more player trying out for the 4th line.

Who is Erik Westrum?
Well wouldn't you know it? He shares my birthday! As you can see, aside from being an assertive Leo, he also put up some pretty good numbers at the University of Minnesota while captaining our very own Back Door Johnny Pohl (apparently he was a role model for Havlat) before beginning a middling career in the AHL (as 187th overall picks are wont to do). However, that all changed with the new rules last year when Westrum broke out to put up 34-63-98 in 71 games as well as 138 PIM. At an even 6 feet and 204 pounds he is bigger than Tucker and Wellwood so I guess that is a plus.

Analysis
Well this Minnesota Wild message board seems to be split between 4th liner and career AHLer. That does not really get my heart racing but he sounds like the kind of cheap, agitator that teams are filling out their 4th lines with so maybe he's not a bad addition. At least we know he has better hands than Clarke Wilm. Also, combined with the Aleksander Suglobov deal JFJ is building quite the team in Toronto. Unfortunately, they play at Ricoh Coliseum. Dammit.

Update (July 14, 2006)
Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun has more details about the signing. Apparently, Westrum will make the minimum whether he is with the Marlies or the Leafs and after that he'll make the minimum or $100,000 depending on whether he has made the grade.

Also, JFJ reinforces my initial observation that Westrum will be vying for that last line or be helping out the Marlies,

"(Westrum) plays a solid, gritty two-way game and more recently has demonstrated his ability on offence," Leafs general manager John Ferguson said. "He will be given an opportunity to compete for an NHL job and otherwise represents solid depth for the organization."

More Signings, Tie, and The Big E

Work has kept me away for a few days but not much of substance (that was not anticipated) has happened in Toronto (the rest of the league has been another matter. Crawford moves to get Cloutier as his new # 1 - wonder how that will work out?).

More Signings
The Leafs have firmly entrenched Andrew Raycroft as their #1 for the forseeable future (until The Sun decides that he will never make it in Toronto?). Kenny Campbell makes a couple of good points.

1- $2M/yr for a starter could turn out to be a great piece of business over the next 3 years (which will see us through most of our $17M/yr defensive commitment. More on salaries and future rammifications tomorrow.)

2- This is as much as goodwill gesture as a good piece of business.

First of all, he earns arbitration rights after next season and it would have cost the Leafs dearly if Raycroft does play well. He's also just two years away from unrestricted free agency.

So this move not only keeps us from getting held for ransom after next season (if it is successful) but it also sets us up well for keeping him after free agency would kick in for our tender. If this first season is successful then JFJ (or his successor) will have two seasons to negotiate an extension. Ideally, it would be done as an extension thereby getting the Leafs a better deal than they would find by waiting until the end of the contract. But let's not waste time discussing errors before they are made.

Also, everyone's favourite lanky Kazakh has signed a one-year deal for about $1M. He was originally offered $950,000 in a two-way deal but exchanged $500,000 (his arbitration deal would have probably been $1.5M) for a one-way deal. On another note: he is +49 for his career?! And +13 last year?!? How? Maybe he is not that bad...

Now a lot of people are Antro-bashers...and with good reason. I have never seen anyone struggle so hard to skate and he is more inconsistent than an Italian talking soccer. But his partnership with Ponikarovsky, especially on the penalty kill, seems ready to bear fruit for the patient. While I have lost patience with Nik on many an occassion I have also seen the potential that has been delayed by multiple knee reconstructions and a variety of other injuries. On the other hand, I will advocate the trading of Carlo Colaiacovo in a future posting (this could be because the World Cup is dominating my thoughts and I hate the Italians but that is a whole other blog) so maybe my patience is selective. Go figure.

Tie
In that same Campbell article he suggested that Tie could retire after being bought out (quite the nice golden parachute) and might make a comeback with the Leafs as a goodwill ambassador in the mould of Darryl Sittler.

I think that this is a great idea. While it is unanimously agreed that the faster NHL has left Tie out of his depth, during his decade of service to the Leafs he has become a fan favourite of many and has always been one of, if not the, most dedicated players to the community. On a personal note, Tie sent each member of my peewee hockey team a signed picture to make up for most of the Leafs having skipped Bobby Orr's Easter Seals skate. Stay Classy and stay with the Leafs.

The Big E
No big secret, Eric wants to stay in Toronto and play for his beloved Buds. Lindros carried a big load while Mats was recovering from his eye injury (that really set the tone for the season) and had 22 points in 33 games before having a wrist injury end his season. Almost everyone has heard the rumour of him signing for $750,000 and I would say that that is the top limit on what the Leafs should offer.

He is apparently in great shape and has recovered well from surgery and his willingness to take a paycut shows his desire to be in Toronto. JFJ should harness that desire and sign him before someone offers his something stupid (the salary cap just contains GM's stupidity, it cannot cut it out completely as evidenced by the Leafs themselves).

On a similar thought, normally blinkered and anti-Leafs Damien Cox (that is actually his full name) mentioned that Kubina was offered a $27.5M/5yr deal by the Blues. Thank God we did not match that. Of course it makes the deal seem a little bit better money-wise. Also, he agreed with a couple of my friends and me that the Pronger deal was not worth making.

Two smart things in one article? Start building the bunker, armageddon is on its way.

On a final note Raking Leafs has posted his thoughts on the recent moves as well as his projected lines [thus far] for next season. Soon I'll do the same but for now enjoy his.

The Silly Season

Well, today at noon it finally started: Free Agency.

The early leaders in the 'Buying Improvement' contest are the Boston Bruins and...the Leafs?

I know, I know. We didn't sign Elias today or Chara (Elias is likely out of our range and the Bruins pipped us to Zdeno) but there was a big difference from last year and that is that JFJ was awake this year. Sure he was probably awake last year since it would be tough to sleep for that many months if you aren't a bear (TERROR ALERT!) but he clearly was not quite sure how the new market was going to play out.

This year has been a study in contrasts. JFJ has been decisive (at least) and made moves ranging from 'not bad' to 'could be good/great' to 'solid'. Granted he did make 1 'odd' move (Pohl's one way deal) and one questionable move (McCabe is making a lot of money for a defenceman that can't really defend. Bring back the Can Opener!). However, he has avoided the inaction of last year as well as making any truly boneheaded deals (of course, that Allison rumour is lurking). In fact, he has cleaned up some of his idiot moves. Give Belfour a pre-lockout 3 year deal? Don't exercise the option and buy him out. Sign Tie to a two-year deal at the Friends and Family rate? Realize he can't make the minimum contribution he used to make, buy him out. Together these moves will constitute a hit to the salary cap figure but at least they won't be making a hit to the team's wins and points figures. Anymore.

Now I am not really saying that the Leafs made the second biggest improvment out of all teams but they did fill two big holes on defence by getting Hal Gill from the Bruins and Pavel Kubina from the Lightning. Now, on their own maybe neither signing would be that great. Kubina's would definitely be seen by some as over-paying (especially in light of the contracts that Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee signed). Those people would be right. $5M/yr is a lot in light of those deals and taking into account what Kaberle ($4.25/yr) and McCabe ($5.75/yr) are already being paid.

However, taken together, they provide the Leafs with a solid second defence pairing (my assumption is that they will play together since Kaberle and McCabe are a pretty much undisputed to pair). This is something that was seriously lacking last year and that will allow the 5, 6, and 7 spots to go to three of the kids that filled in last year. Gill and Kubina complement each other pretty well. Both are big, strong defencemen; especially Gill who will be our 6'7" answer to Chara. The symbiosis in this relationship is that while Kubina has put up back-to-back solid offensive seasons while Gill (minus last year's disastrous season for all Bruins) posted +/- numbers of 16, 21, 16 over the last three years.

These two moves work to build a better defensive foundation in front of our new # 1 Raycroft. They are also signs of JFJ having a pulse and a clue, both good things for long suffering Leafs' fans. Granted, their success depends on the return to form of two Bruins but they will be entering this season on the back of a full off-season of training and camp not a year long lockout.
Free Agency Grade (thus far): C+

Signings, Troubled Leafs, and Toronto's Prodigal Son

Signings
Bitter Leaf Fan noted that the Leafs have tendered a number of qualifying offers to their RFAs. Apparently, only Stajan, Raycroft, and Pohl received one way deals. This is interesting because it seems to suggest that JFJ is not entirely convinced that the Leafs Kiddie Corps is ready for the NHL but has some sort of plan to use Pohl (4th line centre?). Hopefully, solid training camps will erase any doubt and we can start building a team instead of trying to buy one.

Another nice note is that Antropov didn't get the usual raise just for being lucky enough to have been a Pat Quinn project. JFJ offered him a two way deal which will probably lead to arbitration. The best outcome is a deal that drops the minor league clause for less money.

Troubled Leafs
Now that McCabe finally signed his $28.75M/5yr contract he has revealed that there was a good reason for the delay. Why he would allow rumours to run rampant slamming his wife for wanting to move closer to her family is beyond me. He stated after signing that he did not want the attention:

"It was very stressful," McCabe said Thursday before boarding a flight back to Long Island. "Everybody was speculating. It's tough because it's some serious personal stuff and it's really not anyone's business. My wife doesn't want to be in the paper. It was disappointing."

Surely, since she was in the paper anyway he could have relieved her of the pain of seeing her name in the media in a less than glowing manner by releasing a simple statement. Best wishes to the family and hopefully Roberta makes a speedy recovery.

And it seems the Pronger rumours have upset Tomas Kaberle with his agent noting that the Oilers would just end up trading one disgruntled defenceman for another. I agree, it would be a terrible move to get Kaberle to sign a long-term deal only to trade him before the no-trade clause kicks in. It would be a bad sign for future free agents.

The Return of Roberts
Kenny Campbell first broke the news and now Mark Zwolinski is reporting that the Roberts deal may be almost complete with a 3rd/4th round pick being the Panthers' asking price. If we are going to bring in a veteran presence to help the kids develop then Gary is a good choice and a 4th round pick is not that high of a price. It is definitely a MUCH better option than this: JASON ALLISON. Sweet Jesus, NO! This would undo what has so far been a summer of solid work by JFJ (maybe he does have a plan, who knew?). All the wisdom that Jason has to offer is how to milk the PP for points, skate slower than any hockey player under the age of 90, and make the same incredulous face after every penalty call (too late: McCabe has it down pat).

I'll be having a relaxing/stressful weekend of World Cup action and praying for some solid free agent additions. Enjoy the long weekend and Happy Canada Day!

Raycroft, Rumours, and Anti-Leafs Ranting

Raycroft

As anticipated, on Draft Day the Leafs moved to solidify their # 1 position by trading Finnish prospect Tuukka Rask for former Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft. The key to the deal is obviously 'former Calder Trophy winner'. Yes, Rask was the top goalie at the World Juniors but for every Roberto Luongo, Jose Theodore, and Kari Lehtonen that has won that award there is a Yevgeny Tarasoc, Pauli Jacks, Jamie Storr, and Jimmy Waite. Rask could fall anywhere between the two levels.

While adding Raycroft as the # 1 is a gamble (of course, I was in favour of gambling with Aubin/Telly) it is far less so than mortgaging the team's future for a Giguere or Nabokov to hold down the fort until Rask (hopefully) develops into a starter. He has already proven that he can be a # 1 (2003-2004: 29-18-9, 2.05GAA, .926SV%). Like many NHLers that did not play during the lockout, Raycroft struggled mightily (2005-2006: 8-19-0, 3.71GAA, .879SV%).

Raycroft will find his pre-lockout stride. The renewed confidence of not just a starting job but a new long-term deal in addition to a full pre-season and training camp will stand Raycroft in good stead. If I had to wager, I would say that Aubin will be the backup with Tellqvist most likely being moved (if Pogge is with the Marlies then it'll be a Pogge-Racine duo) or Telly backing up Pogge if Racine continues with the Memphis Riverkings in the CHL.

Rumours

Ken Campbell of the Toronto Star is reporting that the Leafs are trying to shore up one of their weak spots by landing one of the top defencemen in the league in Chris Pronger. Unfortunately, we can't do like we did with Cujo (maybe that explains the next item) and outbid the Oilers. they are demanding Kaberle and Steen (not a good move as I'll show later) which is too much for a team that is supposed to be BUILDING A TEAM after years of mortgaging the future. Maybe that's why JFJ has never mentioned any sort of plan. He's just continuing the old plan, bad contracts, old players, just enough results to prevent anarchy.

Well, after seeing the Hartford Whalers win the cup in their SECOND Finals trip in four years Leafs fans will not be too happy to see more young players leaving (ie. Alyn McCauley and Brad Boyes for Owen Nolan) to have their best years elsewhere while the Leafs get older players on the decline. Granted, Pronger is not on a steep decline but he has logged about 30 minutes per game for 12 seasons. He's going to start breaking down (since he's always been injury prone this will only get worse) and it will be in Toronto if JFJ has his way.

Anti-Leafs Ranting

Geez, the reaction to Darren Dreger of Sportsnet writing that he thought that the Leafs were 'the most intriguing option' for the Oilers garnered A LOT of reaction. Most postings average 15-30 replies. This one had 117 mostly blinkered, frothing at the mouth, anti-Leafs comments. The most ridiculous comments alternately stated that Alexander Steen was a terrible prospect or that Tomas Kaberle was over-rated and over-paid.

In his rookie campaign Steen put up 18-27-45 in 75 games to rank 8th in rookie scoring. He placed ahead of such highly praised rookies as Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry. Sure he slowed down in the latter stages of the season but he had never played more than 40 games in a season.

As for Tomas Kaberle, he was fifth in defencemen scoring, 9-58-67 in 82 games ahead of, among others, Chris Pronger. Both had similar +/- of -1 and 2 respectively. While Tomas, at age 28, just signed a contract that will pay him $4.25M/yr Pronger is set to receive an average of $6.25M/yr over the next 4 years that will take him from 32 to 36 years. And as much as Pronger plays Kaberle actually averaged 28:10 per game compared to 27:59. I would say that Kaberle is the better option for the Leafs rather than trading youth to get a player who has played most of his best years. I would rather see JFJ rescind the deal he's offered McCabe and use that money to get a better deal on a replacement like Aaron Ward or Jay McKee.