The Silly Season

Well, today at noon it finally started: Free Agency.

The early leaders in the 'Buying Improvement' contest are the Boston Bruins and...the Leafs?

I know, I know. We didn't sign Elias today or Chara (Elias is likely out of our range and the Bruins pipped us to Zdeno) but there was a big difference from last year and that is that JFJ was awake this year. Sure he was probably awake last year since it would be tough to sleep for that many months if you aren't a bear (TERROR ALERT!) but he clearly was not quite sure how the new market was going to play out.

This year has been a study in contrasts. JFJ has been decisive (at least) and made moves ranging from 'not bad' to 'could be good/great' to 'solid'. Granted he did make 1 'odd' move (Pohl's one way deal) and one questionable move (McCabe is making a lot of money for a defenceman that can't really defend. Bring back the Can Opener!). However, he has avoided the inaction of last year as well as making any truly boneheaded deals (of course, that Allison rumour is lurking). In fact, he has cleaned up some of his idiot moves. Give Belfour a pre-lockout 3 year deal? Don't exercise the option and buy him out. Sign Tie to a two-year deal at the Friends and Family rate? Realize he can't make the minimum contribution he used to make, buy him out. Together these moves will constitute a hit to the salary cap figure but at least they won't be making a hit to the team's wins and points figures. Anymore.

Now I am not really saying that the Leafs made the second biggest improvment out of all teams but they did fill two big holes on defence by getting Hal Gill from the Bruins and Pavel Kubina from the Lightning. Now, on their own maybe neither signing would be that great. Kubina's would definitely be seen by some as over-paying (especially in light of the contracts that Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee signed). Those people would be right. $5M/yr is a lot in light of those deals and taking into account what Kaberle ($4.25/yr) and McCabe ($5.75/yr) are already being paid.

However, taken together, they provide the Leafs with a solid second defence pairing (my assumption is that they will play together since Kaberle and McCabe are a pretty much undisputed to pair). This is something that was seriously lacking last year and that will allow the 5, 6, and 7 spots to go to three of the kids that filled in last year. Gill and Kubina complement each other pretty well. Both are big, strong defencemen; especially Gill who will be our 6'7" answer to Chara. The symbiosis in this relationship is that while Kubina has put up back-to-back solid offensive seasons while Gill (minus last year's disastrous season for all Bruins) posted +/- numbers of 16, 21, 16 over the last three years.

These two moves work to build a better defensive foundation in front of our new # 1 Raycroft. They are also signs of JFJ having a pulse and a clue, both good things for long suffering Leafs' fans. Granted, their success depends on the return to form of two Bruins but they will be entering this season on the back of a full off-season of training and camp not a year long lockout.
Free Agency Grade (thus far): C+

Signings, Troubled Leafs, and Toronto's Prodigal Son

Signings
Bitter Leaf Fan noted that the Leafs have tendered a number of qualifying offers to their RFAs. Apparently, only Stajan, Raycroft, and Pohl received one way deals. This is interesting because it seems to suggest that JFJ is not entirely convinced that the Leafs Kiddie Corps is ready for the NHL but has some sort of plan to use Pohl (4th line centre?). Hopefully, solid training camps will erase any doubt and we can start building a team instead of trying to buy one.

Another nice note is that Antropov didn't get the usual raise just for being lucky enough to have been a Pat Quinn project. JFJ offered him a two way deal which will probably lead to arbitration. The best outcome is a deal that drops the minor league clause for less money.

Troubled Leafs
Now that McCabe finally signed his $28.75M/5yr contract he has revealed that there was a good reason for the delay. Why he would allow rumours to run rampant slamming his wife for wanting to move closer to her family is beyond me. He stated after signing that he did not want the attention:

"It was very stressful," McCabe said Thursday before boarding a flight back to Long Island. "Everybody was speculating. It's tough because it's some serious personal stuff and it's really not anyone's business. My wife doesn't want to be in the paper. It was disappointing."

Surely, since she was in the paper anyway he could have relieved her of the pain of seeing her name in the media in a less than glowing manner by releasing a simple statement. Best wishes to the family and hopefully Roberta makes a speedy recovery.

And it seems the Pronger rumours have upset Tomas Kaberle with his agent noting that the Oilers would just end up trading one disgruntled defenceman for another. I agree, it would be a terrible move to get Kaberle to sign a long-term deal only to trade him before the no-trade clause kicks in. It would be a bad sign for future free agents.

The Return of Roberts
Kenny Campbell first broke the news and now Mark Zwolinski is reporting that the Roberts deal may be almost complete with a 3rd/4th round pick being the Panthers' asking price. If we are going to bring in a veteran presence to help the kids develop then Gary is a good choice and a 4th round pick is not that high of a price. It is definitely a MUCH better option than this: JASON ALLISON. Sweet Jesus, NO! This would undo what has so far been a summer of solid work by JFJ (maybe he does have a plan, who knew?). All the wisdom that Jason has to offer is how to milk the PP for points, skate slower than any hockey player under the age of 90, and make the same incredulous face after every penalty call (too late: McCabe has it down pat).

I'll be having a relaxing/stressful weekend of World Cup action and praying for some solid free agent additions. Enjoy the long weekend and Happy Canada Day!

Raycroft, Rumours, and Anti-Leafs Ranting

Raycroft

As anticipated, on Draft Day the Leafs moved to solidify their # 1 position by trading Finnish prospect Tuukka Rask for former Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft. The key to the deal is obviously 'former Calder Trophy winner'. Yes, Rask was the top goalie at the World Juniors but for every Roberto Luongo, Jose Theodore, and Kari Lehtonen that has won that award there is a Yevgeny Tarasoc, Pauli Jacks, Jamie Storr, and Jimmy Waite. Rask could fall anywhere between the two levels.

While adding Raycroft as the # 1 is a gamble (of course, I was in favour of gambling with Aubin/Telly) it is far less so than mortgaging the team's future for a Giguere or Nabokov to hold down the fort until Rask (hopefully) develops into a starter. He has already proven that he can be a # 1 (2003-2004: 29-18-9, 2.05GAA, .926SV%). Like many NHLers that did not play during the lockout, Raycroft struggled mightily (2005-2006: 8-19-0, 3.71GAA, .879SV%).

Raycroft will find his pre-lockout stride. The renewed confidence of not just a starting job but a new long-term deal in addition to a full pre-season and training camp will stand Raycroft in good stead. If I had to wager, I would say that Aubin will be the backup with Tellqvist most likely being moved (if Pogge is with the Marlies then it'll be a Pogge-Racine duo) or Telly backing up Pogge if Racine continues with the Memphis Riverkings in the CHL.

Rumours

Ken Campbell of the Toronto Star is reporting that the Leafs are trying to shore up one of their weak spots by landing one of the top defencemen in the league in Chris Pronger. Unfortunately, we can't do like we did with Cujo (maybe that explains the next item) and outbid the Oilers. they are demanding Kaberle and Steen (not a good move as I'll show later) which is too much for a team that is supposed to be BUILDING A TEAM after years of mortgaging the future. Maybe that's why JFJ has never mentioned any sort of plan. He's just continuing the old plan, bad contracts, old players, just enough results to prevent anarchy.

Well, after seeing the Hartford Whalers win the cup in their SECOND Finals trip in four years Leafs fans will not be too happy to see more young players leaving (ie. Alyn McCauley and Brad Boyes for Owen Nolan) to have their best years elsewhere while the Leafs get older players on the decline. Granted, Pronger is not on a steep decline but he has logged about 30 minutes per game for 12 seasons. He's going to start breaking down (since he's always been injury prone this will only get worse) and it will be in Toronto if JFJ has his way.

Anti-Leafs Ranting

Geez, the reaction to Darren Dreger of Sportsnet writing that he thought that the Leafs were 'the most intriguing option' for the Oilers garnered A LOT of reaction. Most postings average 15-30 replies. This one had 117 mostly blinkered, frothing at the mouth, anti-Leafs comments. The most ridiculous comments alternately stated that Alexander Steen was a terrible prospect or that Tomas Kaberle was over-rated and over-paid.

In his rookie campaign Steen put up 18-27-45 in 75 games to rank 8th in rookie scoring. He placed ahead of such highly praised rookies as Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry. Sure he slowed down in the latter stages of the season but he had never played more than 40 games in a season.

As for Tomas Kaberle, he was fifth in defencemen scoring, 9-58-67 in 82 games ahead of, among others, Chris Pronger. Both had similar +/- of -1 and 2 respectively. While Tomas, at age 28, just signed a contract that will pay him $4.25M/yr Pronger is set to receive an average of $6.25M/yr over the next 4 years that will take him from 32 to 36 years. And as much as Pronger plays Kaberle actually averaged 28:10 per game compared to 27:59. I would say that Kaberle is the better option for the Leafs rather than trading youth to get a player who has played most of his best years. I would rather see JFJ rescind the deal he's offered McCabe and use that money to get a better deal on a replacement like Aaron Ward or Jay McKee.