Results Comparison III: Surprise!

Welcome to the third installment of my eight part series comparing this season's results to last year's. In the first two parts we saw that in the game number comparison this year's squad bears a startling resemblance to the 2005-06 buds squad. It was only in the equivalent fixtures comparison (my favourite) that we saw tangible evidence of the improvement that all Leaf fans could see with our eyes.

Then the Leafs took their Christmas vacation about a month early and proceeded to lose seven games in a row. I had assumed that this slide would manifest itself in a rather poor comparison at the 30 game mark. Most of the gains in the Equivalent Fixtures comparison have been rolled back. The big surprise (not really since I gave it away in the post title) comes within the Game Number comparison where the Leafs have played themselves into almost the exact same position as last year after 30 games. This surprised me quite a bit because my memory was that last year they had been in pretty good shape after 30 games whereas this year there has been much gnashing of the teeth.

Without further ado, here are the past segments in the series and the comparison's at the 30 game mark.

Results Comparison: The Explanation
Results Comparison I: After 10 Games
Results Comparison II: State of Leafs Nation

Game Number Comparison

After 30 Games Last Season

Record: 15-12-3
Points: 33
Total Goals For (TGF): 99
Total Goals Against (TGA): 95
Goal Differential (GD): +4
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 60
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 54
Power Play Goals (PPG): 42
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 193
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 21.76%
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 153
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 186
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 82.26%
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 6
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 5

After 30 Games This Season

Record: 13-12-5 (-2, +/-0, +2)
Points: 31 (-2)
Total Goals For (TGF): 94 (-5)
Total Goals Against (TGA): 100 (+5)
Goal Differential (GD): -6 (-10)
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 61 (+1)
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 67 (+13)
Power Play Goals (PPG): 29 (-13)
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 156 (-9)
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 18.59% (-3.17%)
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 129 (-24)
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 154 (-32)
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 83.77% (+1.51%)
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2 (-4)
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 4 (-1)

Equivalent Fixtures Comparison

After 30 Games Last Season

Record: 15-13-2
Points: 32
Total Goals For (TGF): 97
Total Goals Against (TGA): 102
Goal Differential (GD): -5
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 51
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 58
Power Play Goals (PPG): 39
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 183
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 21.31%
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 157
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 196
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 80.10%
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 5
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 3

After 30 Games This Season

Record: 13-12-5 (-2, -1, +3)
Points: 31 (-1)
Total Goals For (TGF): 94 (-3)
Total Goals Against (TGA): 100 (-2)
Goal Differential (GD): -7 (-2)
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 61 (+10)
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 67 (+9)
Power Play Goals (PPG): 29 (-10)
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 156 (-27)
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 18.59% (-2.72%)
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 129 (-28)
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 154 (-42)
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 83.77% (+3.67%)
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2 (-3)
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 4 (+1)

Results Comparison II: State of Leafs Nation

Personally, I hate the Red Sox for perpetrating 'Red Sox Nation' on the world and spawning the (team) Nation phenomenon. However, it works with the post title. Frankly, if they had used Leafs Union it would work even better but beggars can't be choosers.

Previous Entries (all free)
Results Comparison: The Explanation
Results Comparison I: After 10 Games

I expanded the EF comparison so that it covers the same aspects as the GN comparison.

Game Number Comparison

After 20 Games Last Season
Record: 11-7-2
Points: 24
Total Goals For (TGF): 73
Total Goals Against (TGA): 70
Goal Differential (GD): +3
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 45
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 43
Power Play Goals (PPG): 33
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 128
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 25.78%
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 105
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 127
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 82.68%
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 4
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 3

After 20 Games This Season
Record: 11-5-4 (0, -2, +2)
Points: 26 (+2)
Total Goals For (TGF): 70 (-3)
Total Goals Against (TGA): 64 (-6)
Goal Differential (GD): +6 (+3)
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 47 (+2)
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 45 (+2)
Power Play Goals (PPG): 19 (-14)
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 107 (-8)
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 17.76% (-8.02%)
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 87 (-18)
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 101 (-26)
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 86.14% (+3.46%)
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2 (-2)
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 2 (-1)

Equivalent Fixtures Comparison

After 20 Games Last Season
Record: 9-9-2
Points: 20
Total Goals For (TGF): 55
Total Goals Against (TGA): 65
Goal Differential (GD): -10
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 29
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 35
Power Play Goals (PPG): 24
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 114
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 21.05%
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 93
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 117
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 79.49%
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 1
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 1

After 20 Games This Season
Record: 11-5-4 (+2, -4, +2)
Points: 26 (+6)
Total Goals For (TGF): 70 (+15)
Total Goals Against (TGA): 64 (-1)
Goal Differential (GD): +6 (+16)
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 47 (+18)
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 45 (+10)
Power Play Goals (PPG): 19 (-5)
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 107 (-7)
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 17.76% (-4.29%)
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 87 (-6)
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 101 (-16)
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 86.14% (+6.65%)
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2 (+/-0)
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 2 (+1)

I don't have time to post extensive thoughts on what these numbers mean. What is pretty clear is that the Equivalent Fixtures comparison looks mighty good but that will change after a horrid streak in games 21-30 by the Leafs. The game number comparison probably will not look as bad as the Leafs' latest streak would lead one to believe mostly because last year they went 4-5-1 in those games and 6-4-0 in the equivalent fixtures from last year. Feel free to post your thoughts on these numbers in the comments.

Results Comparison: The Explanation

This will be an ongoing look at the Leafs current season compared to last year. I got the idea from RAWK a Liverpool FC forum that has run similar comparisons over the past couple of seasons. There are two comparisons, one based on the equivalent fixtures from last season and one based on the game number.

The equivalent fixtures comparison looks at the games based on the same game from last year. So this year's opening trio of games that went Ottawa - Home, Ottawa - Away, and Montreal - Home are compared to last year's first game at home against Ottawa, first game away to Ottawa, and first game at home against Montreal. The order of comparison is based on this season's schedule.

The one problem is that because of this terrible unbalanced schedule the Leafs do not play all of the same opponents. Last year we visited the Northwest Division and hosted the Pacific Division. This year we host the Northwest and visit the Central. Therefore, the Northwest games will still correspond but the Central games will be compared with the Pacific games based on last year's finish in the standings. Therefore Dallas becomes Detroit, San Jose becomes Nashville, Anaheim becomes Columbus, Los Angeles becomes Chicago, and Phoenix becomes St. Louis.

The comparison based on the game number is a bit more in-depth for now and matches game # 1 of last season with this game # 1 of this season, # 2 with #2.

With all of that explained here is the first installment.

Results Comparison I: After 10 Games

Equivalent Fixtures

Total points from equivalent games last season: 8
Goals For: 27
Goals Against: 38
Goal Difference: -11

Total points this season: 11 (+3)
Goals For: 33 (+6)
Goals Against: 36 (-2)
Goal Difference: -3 (-8)

Game Number Comparison

After 10 Games Last Season

Points: 12
Total Goals For (TGF): 40
Total Goals Against (TGA): 34
Goal Differential (GD): +6
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 17
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 21
Power Play Goals (PPG): 20
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 67
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 29.85%
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 54
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 64
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 85.71%
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 2

After 10 Games This Season

Points: 11 (-1)
Total Goals For (TGF): 33 (-7)
Total Goals Against (TGA): 36 (+2)
Goal Differential (GD): -3 (-9)
Even-Strength Goals For (ESGF): 23 (+6)
Even-Strength Goals Against (ESGA): 23 (+2)
Power Play Goals (PPG): 7 (-13)
Power Play Attempts (PPA): 51 (-16)
Power Play Percentage (PP%): 13.73% (-16.12%)
Successful Penalty Kills (SPK): 41 (-13)
Penalty Kill Attempts (PKA): 50 (-14)
Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%): 82.00% (3.71%)
Short-handed Goals For (SHGF): 2 (/)
Short-handed Goals Against (SHGA): 1 (-1)

The powerplay numbers are skewed a bit by the 9-1 Atlanta game that saw the Leafs go 7-16 with the extra man/men. However, you can see that this year's team is depending a bit less on the powerplay to create offence. The team has become, when they play, a much harder opponent 5-on-5 as evidenced by the even goal differential compared to a 4 goal deficit last year at even strength. The penalty kill had actually reached a level of improvement over last year but the last two games knocked it down to below last season's. The encouraging sign is that the Leafs have averaged just over one penalty a game less which shows that they are adapting much better to the new standard of officiating.